The Cannoneer Formula
Three essential factors that make or break software projects
Every second software project is doomed to fail
Your development project has a 50% survival and success rate, according to Standing Group. They publish the so-called CHAOS report, where they look at most common reasons why projects don't succeed.
In their report they show that nearly half of all software projects are doomed to fail.
I see the reasons in their list fall into one of three categories. Each of them influences the success probability and has the chance to “sink” the project. I call this the “Cannoneer Formula”.
To sink a target, you’ll need to get three factors right: 1. The right amount of gun powder 2. The aim at the right target 3. The accuracy of the shot
1. Gun powder = Project Management
This translates into putting the right amount of resources into your project and installing a good project management.
If you don’t get this right, the development team and product managers will have an extremely hard time to make the project a success. It might even work great in the beginning but won’t deliver the expected impact or business value in the end (or the resources are depleted before the goal can be achieved).
2. Aim = Requirements Engineering
Setting the right target means you decide and validate the project goal and vision. This lies at the very core of professional requirements engineering.
If the goals and requirements are not clear or plain wrong, project management and development efficiency need to be extremely strong. This is why Agile can be a huge help: It allows you to correct your “aim” even after the cannon has been “fired” — This increases your probabilities of success.
Many projects fail because of this factor. The developed product just misses the market need and ends up being unused and unprofitable.
3. Accuracy = Development Effectiveness
Firing accuracy translates into the effectiveness of development processes: How well does the team develop what the requirements engineer gave them?
The key is close communication to make sure that development understands the implicit and explicit expectations of product manager and customer.
A low accuracy may lead to a situation where the product manager or owner doesn’t approve the deliverables.
How to use the “Cannoneer Formula”
The overall “impact” or project success can be calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each factor.
For example, you estimate: - Project management and resources to be 80% correct - Requirements engineering to be 70% correct - Development effectiveness to be at 80%
Then your expected success rate is 44.8% (don’t be fooled by the apparent accuracy of that probability — it is only a rough number).
To increase the success of software projects in your company, find out which of these factors is the weakest. Then you can work to increase the success rate of your development projects.
Daniel Sontag connects the bots:
As Industry 4.0 lead and manager for connected products, he does what he loves — tying business to tech, and theory to practice.
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